Saint Louis MO Real Estate Today

St. Louis MO Real Estate Total Market Overview - MLS Market Statistics and Real Estate Market Update

Cottrell Report – Total Market Overview for Week Ending 2/6/09

Saint Louis , MO Real Estate Market Update & MLS Statistics Overview

		Current WK	4 Weeks	1 Yr	Trend
Active Listings		3,954	3,881	4,680	+
Pending Ratio		9.6%	9.4%	12.9%	=
Pendings Previous 30 Days		262	199	n/a	+
Pendings below 300K (%)		77.8%	82%	n/a	+
Price Reductions		11.2%	9.4%	18.2%	-
Days on Market*		84.1	90.5	69.8	+
List/Selling Price(%)**		95.1%	95.3%	96.9%	-
*Weighted Average Days on Market for Listings Sold
**Average List/Sell% for all listings sold in past 6 months
Source: MARIS MLS Data Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed
© 2008 Cottrell Realty Group/Incubation Realty Group LLC  ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

 

Download TMO2009_020309

Download Crg_list_to_sell_analysis

 “The Saint Louis MO real estate market remained unseasonably slow this past month.  Many listings – including new or reduced priced listings – had NO or few showings…The icy and cold weather combined with waiting for a stimulus package and foreclosure rescue plan from President Obama and Congress certainly did not help.”

 

Now - For some good news!

 

Some well priced houses and condos are receiving offers and selling (provided  seller’s are motivated and realistic in their pricing expectations)  – we have negotiated 2 contracts in the past 7 days and are working several other offers  currently on additional listings.

 

Supply side – Listing Inventory Continues to be a record low levels – market has corrected with significantly lower available listings – In the current market, available listing inventory is 15.5% lower than the same period last year. 

 

For reference, 2008 available listing inventory levels were approximately 15-17% below 2006/2007 levels.  This has resulted in a market contraction of more than 25% (compared to the peak of the market in 2005/2006 in sales represented by the number of transactions.

 

This trend appears to be continuing with 17% fewer listings being activated during January 2009 when compared with January 2008.  The last time new listings were at this low a level was January 2002.

 

In addition, sellers are much more realistic now – those that do NOT have to sell are not selling or attempting to market their homes or condos in St. Louis.  As we’ve previously discussed, a fairly significant population of sellers exist in the Saint Louis Metro market who are in current loan products that no longer exist.  As such, they are unable to sell and then re-purchase again.  As such, many of them who would normally be coming on the market to sell during the spring selling season are not coming on – hence the significantly lower listing inventory.

 

  Note: If you have a listing that has been rejected by the market – few or zero showings or showings and no offers – call us today at 314-779-3600 for a free NO OBLIGATION listing evaluation.

 

We sold a record number of 91+ homes in 2008 - despite the challenging market conditions.  Ask me for details on our aggressive, proven marketing plan and how it can get yours sold too!

 

Pending Ratio stable again week over week!

The pending ratio remained near the mid 9% range which is considerably lower than the same time last year when the ratio was %.  This ratio very close to the lowest level of 2007 and we expect the pending ratio to decline further based on seasonal reductions of buyers in the fall and winter in Saint Louis, MO.

 .

As was mentioned above, the supply side of the St. Louis Metro Real Estate market has contracted significantly.  In addition, the trend which began in October/November 2008 on the buy side of the market (as measured by pendings has continued). Activity below $300K price points (as measured by the % of contracts – # of pending contracts in the most recent past 30 days) continues to dominate sales.  This is directly the result of plentiful financing using FHA loan programs for buyers at historically low rates.  FHA loan limits beginning Jan 2009 for the St. Louis Metro were adjusted to $271,250. 

 

Now as buyers purchase homes up to the loan limits allowed by FHA, this frees up equity for sellers of these home, a portion of which will purchase a new home in a higher price range – commonly referred to as a ‘move up buyer.’ 

 

The easiest way to see this happening in the market is to closely watch the % of transactions below 300K and as the active buyers using FHA financing continue to generate additional move up buyers with closings, the % will decline (with a larger # of pending contracts initially in the $300-350K range and then $350-400K price range).

 

This is exactly what we are seeing in the Saint Louis Metro since early January.   The wild card in all of this analysis is the rumored availability of a stimulus package from Congress which will increase the amount of a home buyer tax credit to $15,000 with availability to all buyers (not just first time home buyers).  In addition, the tax credit will supposedly be a true credit without the restrictions on repayment and qualifications which burdened the tax credit program introduced by Congress in mid-2008. 

 

This will truly be a watershed week provided Congress gets a realistic stimulus plan in place which gains approval and is signed into law by President Obama.

 

“A huge number of Saint Louis MO home sellers reduced their prices in the past 7 days – more than 453 price reductions -represents a reduction by almost 1 in every 12 listings! …”

Price Reductions continue at record levels

 

 

Despite having lower levels of inventory, the buyer pool has also decreased to a level where there are more active listings available in many submarkets in St. Louis MO than buyers who will purchase in a reasonable timeframe. Relative pending ratios for these submarkets and price ranges are well below 10%.  In these specific areas, even significant price reductions have been met with limited to no new showings.  These areas are definitely targets for sellers to consider  Lease/Purchases – something we’ve  developed as a successful aggressive strategy to re-position a listing to compete with a large number of available properties. 

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:  Seller’s in some Saint Louis areas may get one and only one shot at selling their house or condo in 2009.  A seller of a condo in Clayton MO or a house in Ballwin MO who receives an offer – however poorly presented or structured – should carefully weigh whether this is the only and best offer they will receive.  We’ve worked with many a disappointed seller – who disregarded the advice from their seasoned agent that ‘this is likely the best offer – and likely the only offer given current market conditions that you will see.”  Smart sellers are getting aggressive and respond without judgment or ego to offers – regardless of how low the initial offering price is.  We recently looked at 20 listings we terminated or we let expire with sellers due to a lack of consensus on the correct price for getting the home sold.  Remarkably, the majority of these listings either NEVER sold -were removed from the market altogether or were re-marketed by other agents and ultimately sold at levels even below what we suggested as the market deteriorated.  In one case in Webster Groves, the sellers have carried two rehabbed homes at ridiculously high prices and now are trying to rent – 18 months later.  This seller commented to me this past week – “God, I really wish we had taken your advice and counsel – we’ve lost a fortune with holding out.”

 

“With the stock market meltdown last fall, smart investors and home buyers are realizing that at no time has the St. Louis MO real estate market ever subjected their invested capital to the extreme risk that the stock market does.  When was the last time you saw a house price decline by 7% in a day in Saint Louis?  - NEVER“

 

Significant Opportunity for Saint Louis for homebuyers!

 

The shift in the real estate market in Saint Louis provides a significant opportunity for home buyers.  With the stock market meltdown, many smart investors and home buyers are realizing that at no time has the St. Louis

 real estate market ever subjected their invested capital to the extreme risk that the stock market does.  When was the last time you saw a house price decline by 7% in a day in Saint Louis?  NEVER 

 

We have received a record number of calls from buyers and investors looking to move capital into real estate using self directed IRAs.  Beware – your friendly investment advisor at Edward Jones, AG Edwards, etc will tell you that you can NOT do this.  This is not accurate.  Smart buyers are already converting their IRAs and investment accounts to self-directed accounts and looking to move in to a more stable investment asset of real estate in  St. Louis.

 

Call us today at 314-779-3690 for more details and a referral to a company that can assist with self-directed IRAs.

 

As we discussed previously, as a home buyer looking in St. Louis MO, you need a market expert buyer agent who can assist with the selection of homes that represent the best value and when you find the best home in Saint Louis MO, provide the critical analysis for potential purchases (is the home priced in such a manner where it represents a significant value, has it had price a price reduction(s) – when, by how much? What do the comparable sales indicate?  These are all key things that a professional buyer specialist can provide – Just make sure your agent is a market expert!

 

We will continue to watch this measure carefully along with the overall list to sell ratio for pricing which has remained below 96% since December 2007.  It is important to note that the list to sales ratio is considerably lower than the 97.4% seen two years ago in St. Louis.

 

 Both indicators show activity as well as aggressive offers being accepted from the relatively smaller pool of buyers who are active in the marketplace.   For reference, the national list/sell ratio is below 90% and in some cases – markets with significant foreclosure and bank owned inventory – way below this number.

 

Readers should note that both the List to Sale Ratio and the Weighted Average Days on Market are lagging indicators of market condition – they contain a rolling 6 months of data – and as such will not be the first indicator of market correction.  The pending ratio (see above) is the leading indicator and as such will show the first and strongest sign of a shift in the market.

Unfortunately, the local and national press focus on other indicators that are either plainly inaccurate or lag (imagine days on market declining for 30 weeks – when pending ratio reversed trend for more than 6 of those weeks) the market in terms of shifts.

 

Based on this fact, the press and most real estate agents and brokers normally watching the days on market would believe that the market is improving (days on market have been declining).  However, the number of buyers under contract (pending ratio) has declined significantly (by over 24%) in the past month.  We’ll be watching this carefully for any continued degradation in the pending ratio.

 

Note:  Complete definitions of all terms for the Cottrell Report are found here.

 

Kevin Cottrell /Cottrell Realty Group in Saint Louis MO

 

St. Louis MO Real Estate Total Market Overview - Real Estate Market Update

Cottrell Report – Total Market Overview for Week Ending 10/24/08

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Update & Overview
			Current WK	4 Weeks Prior	1 Year Ago	Trend
Active Listings			5,174	5,403	6,049	+
Pending Ratio			10.9%	12.3%	11.7%	+
Price Reductions			11.2%	9.4%	18.2%	-
Days on Market*			86.4	87.1	69.8	+
List/Selling Price(%)**			95.6%	95.3%	96.9%	=
			Cottrell Index (08/07)	109	99
			Cottrell Index (07/07)	111	86
			Cottrell Index (06/07)	108	95
*Weighted Average Days on Market for Listings Sold
**Average List/Sell% for all listings sold in past 6 months
Source: MARIS Data Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed
Cottrell Index based on year over year analysis of ratio of new listings/listings sold
© 2008 Cottrell Realty Group/Incubation Realty Group LLC  ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

For a copy of this week's Total Market Overview Report - please send and email with TMO Please in the subject to  tmo@cottrellrealty.com

Download crg_list_to_sell_analysis.pdf

“The Saint Louis MO real estate market remained unseasonably slow this past week.  Many listings – including new or reduced priced listings – had NO showings…”

Now - For some good news!

 

Some well priced houses are receiving offers and selling (provided seller’s are motivated and realistic in their pricing expectations)  – we have negotiated 3 contracts in the past 7 days and are working several other offers currently on additional listings.

If you have a listing that has been rejected by the market – few or zero showings or showings and no offers – call us today at 314-779-3600 for a free NO OBLIGATION listing evaluation.

 

 

 Pending Ratio Declines stable again week over week!

The pending ratio declined markedly  to 10.9% from last weeks 13.3%.  This ratio very close to the lowest level of 2007 and we expect the pending ratio to decline further based on seasonal reductions of buyers in the fall and winter in

Saint Louis

MO.

 .

Listing Inventory – You are either priced correctly or not in Saint Louis

As we’ve discussed, over the past 30 to 60 days, available inventory (although considerably lower than the same week in 2007 @ 6,049) has increased dramatically to a level of more than 9 months based on the six month rolling sales number.  We’re continuing to see unseasonably slow showing activity – some listings whether new or just reduced in price (some by significant amounts) with very limited to zero showings.  This is a source of consternation for Saint Louis home sellers. 

We believe this is a continued sign of weakness from the fallout from the lack of consumer confidence resulting from the Wall Street and spreading global financial meltdown. Normally strong areas such as Ballwin, Webster Groves,  Kirkwood MO, Clayton MO, Ladue and University City MO continue to be unseasonably low and off from where they were a few weeks ago. 

Unfortunately, the fact that some sellers are not realistic necessitates aggressive and direct discussions on our part.  We believe in telling the truth – and when seller’s lack the willingness to price correctly – we’d rather terminate the listing and have them understand that they will not in our professional opinion – ever sell at the price they desire (their listing has been ‘rejected’ by the market).  Sometimes, this is a tough pill for sellers to swallow, however, we feel with our broad analysis of the market and pricing expertise, we have a strong handle on what works to get a home sold in this market – we’ve closed more than 80 homes this year. 

Unfortunately, sellers and buyers alike run into the mediocre real estate agent who is either on their way out – or already out of the business – and they hear the mantra of ‘the market is terrible’ or ‘nothing is selling’ or there are ‘no buyers.’  Our advice is simple – when you run into one of these agents who spouts this nonsense – don’t walk – run away and contact a professional agent who has a demonstrable track record of getting homes sold.   Look for a market expert who will tell you the truth.

For sellers – this may not be the price that you want… and you may decide not to sell now and compete with more aggressively priced homes – owned by sellers who have to sell – not ‘want to sell if I can get some target price. 

“A huge number of Saint Louis MO home sellers reduced their prices in the past 7 days – more than 500 price reductions -represents a reduction by almost 1 in every 12 listings! …”

Price Reductions continue at record levels

There are more active listings available in many submarkets in

St. Louis

, than buyers who will purchase in a reasonable timeframe. Relative pending ratios for these submarkets are well below 10%.  In these specific areas, even significant price reductions have been met with limited to no new showings.  These areas are definitely targets for sellers to consider Lease/Purchases – something we’ve   developed as a successful aggressive strategy to re-position a listing to compete with a large number of available properties.  Seller’s in some Saint Louis areas may get one and only one shot at selling their house or condo.  A seller of a condo in Clayton MO or a house in

Fenton

 who receives an offer – however structured – should carefully weigh whether this is the only and best offer they will receive.  We’ve worked with many a disappointed seller – who disregarded the advice from their seasoned agent that ‘this is likely the best offer – and likely the only offer given current market conditions that you will see.”  Smart sellers are getting aggressive and respond without judgment or ego to offers – regardless of how low the initial offering price is.

“With the stock market meltdown, many smart investors and home buyers are realizing that at no time has the

St. Louis

 real estate market ever subjected their invested capital to the extreme risk that the stock market does.  When was the last time you saw a house price decline by 7% in a day in

Saint Louis

?  - NEVER“

Significant Opportunity for

Saint Louis

 for homebuyers!

The shift in the real estate market in

Saint Louis

provides a significant opportunity for home buyers.  With the stock market meltdown, many smart investors and home buyers are realizing that at no time has the

St. Louis

 real estate market ever subjected their invested capital to the extreme risk that the stock market does.  When was the last time you saw a house price decline by 7% in a day in

Saint Louis

?  NEVER 

We have received a record number of calls from buyers and investors looking to move capital into real estate using self directed IRAs.  Be ware – your friendly investment advisor at Edward Jones, AG Edwards, etc will tell you that you can NOT do this.  This is not accurate.  Smart buyers are already converting their IRAs and investment accounts to self-directed accounts and looking to move in to a more stable investment asset of real estate in 

St. Louis.

Call us today at 314-779-3690 for more details and a referral to a company that can assist with self-directed IRAs.

As we discussed previously, as a home buyer looking in St. Louis MO, you need a market expert buyer agent who can assist with the selection of homes that represent the best value and when you find the best home in Saint Louis MO, provide the critical analysis for potential purchases (is the home priced in such a manner where it represents a significant value, has it had price a price reduction(s) – when, by how much? What do the comparable sales indicate?  These are all key things that a professional buyer specialist can provide – Just make sure your agent is a market expert!

"Based on the trend we discussed last week the current window of opportunity for home buyers in

Saint Louis

…could close between late fall and spring."

Weighted Average Days on Market remains above  80! 

Again, this measure which applies a weighting by relative activity per price range and is the aggregate measure of six whole months sales activity had been rising steadily since late fall. 

We will continue to watch this measure carefully along with the overall list to sell ratio for pricing which has remained below 96% since December 2007.  It is important to note that the list to sales ratio is considerably lower than the 97.4% seen two years ago in

St. Louis

  Both indicators show activity as well as aggressive offers being accepted from the relatively smaller pool of buyers who are active in the marketplace.   For reference, the national list/sell ratio is below 90% and in some cases – markets with significant foreclosure and bank owned inventory – way below this number.

Readers should note that both the List to Sale Ratio and the Weighted Average Days on Market are lagging indicators of market condition – they contain a rolling 6 months of data – and as such will not be the first indicator of market correction.  The pending ratio (see above) is the leading indicator and as such will show the first and strongest sign of a shift in the market. Unfortunately, the local and national press focus on other indicators that are either plainly inaccurate or lag (imagine days on market declining for 30 weeks – when pending ratio reversed trend for more than 6 of those weeks) the market in terms of shifts.

Based on this fact, the press and most real estate agents and brokers normally watching the days on market would believe that the market is improving (days on market have been declining).  However, the number of buyers under contract (pending ratio) has declined significantly (by over 24%) in the past month.  We’ll be watching this carefully for any continued degradation in the pending ratio.

Note:  Complete definitions of all terms for the Cottrell Report are found here.

Kevin Cottrell /Cottrell Realty Group in Saint Louis MO

Cottrell Realty Group's Short Sale Listing Referral Program Takes Off - Much Needed Solution for St. Louis and St. Charles area Realtors!

Short Sale Listing Referral Program

Cottrell Realty Group is pleased to announce that it has received a record number of inquiries and referrals from St. Louis and St. Charles area real estate agents since January 1, 2008 -  These  agents have reached out to our team due to our industry high rate of over 80% approval rate for short sales for area sellers.

The reasons for the inquiries from real estate agents are usually very similiar...

• These agents have listings in jeopardy of expiring - most are priced too high.
• Some of these agents call after they have gone on a listing appointment - only to find out the sellers can't sell at the price you suggest - 'we owe more than that'...or 'we can't possibly list at that price, you'll have to raise the price to get your commission.'
• Sellers who won't lower (or can't lower) their price to a level which would allow them to sell - even in this challenging market.
• They are working with sellers who owe more than the property is worth? 
• They have a seller who is facing foreclosure? 

You've come to the right place… Read on to learn about your options as a current or prospective listing agent …And earn a referral fee in the process of doing the right thing for your seller or listing prospect.

As you probably already know, once a foreclosure has occurred, the foreclosure sale notation may remain on your seller's credit report for as long as ten years, severely restricting or inhibiting their ability to apply for other types of credit.  Worse yet, it may also provide a real roadblock when they later try to buy a home.  Wouldn't it be great if you could refer them to a professional team who could provide immediate assistance - and earn a referral fee in the process.

What you may NOT be aware of is that you do have options - don't let your sellers face foreclosure unnecessarily.  Please don't immediately dismiss listing prospects or cancel listings with zero or negative equity.

Why refer your listing or prospects to Cottrell Realty Group?

Experience Matters!

Cottrell Realty Group has helped numerous homeowners around the Saint Louis/St. Charles MO metropolitan area stop foreclosure and stay out of trouble with their lenders. We are proud to provide you with THE BEST solutions in the Saint Louis area so you won't need to lose sleep over your seller's situation.  In fact, our track record for short sale approvals is above 80%.  Compare that to the 'we buy ugly houses' or investor short sale approval rate of 30-35%.  For most agents we speak with, they have never worked on a short sale or have completed less than 3 successful sales.  This is not the market to be learning on the job with your clients at risk.

We employ full-time highly experienced short sale negotiators on our team.  We would strongly suggest that you not try to work on a short sale until you've reviewed the process with us in detail.  If after speaking to us you want to proceed, our tips and suggestions will place you and your clients in a better position to succeed.  If not, we'll enter into a referral agreement and assist your client with their short sale.

You DO have options right now. Click Here or Call us today at 314-779-3600 to discuss our short sale referral program.  Your next referral fee is only a phone call away.  Think about how many referrals your grateful clients will send you over your career if they understand that you were intrumental in assisting them in avoiding foreclosure.

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Returning to Stable Balanced Conditions

Cottrell Report – Total Market Overview for Week Ending 11/16/07

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Update & Overview
			Current WK	4 Weeks Prior	Trend
Active Listings			5,682	6,049	+
Pending Ratio			12.2%	11.7%	=
Price Reductions			7.6%	18.2%	+
Days on Market*			71.3	72.0	-
List/Selling Price(%)**			96.4%	96.9%	+
			Cottrell Index (08/07)	99	=
			Cottrell Index (07/07)	86	-
			Cottrell Index (06/07)	95	-
*Weighted Average Days on Market for Listings Sold
**Average List/Sell% for all listings sold in past 6 months
Source: MARIS Data Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed
Cottrell Index based on year over year analysis of ratio of new listings/listings sold
© Cottrell Realty Group/Keller Williams Realty 2006,2007 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Download tmo_1114071.pdf

“Available Real Estate Inventory in the Saint Louis MO real estate market much like the leaves on area Maple trees are falling like they do every season…”

Pending Ratio Stabilized - stable again week over week!

The pending ratio remained basically flat up slightly from last week to end at 12.2%. This ratio very close to the lowest level of 2007 and we expect the pending ratio to decline further based on seasonal reductions of buyers in the fall and winter in Saint Louis MO.    The market appears to be slowly adjusting back to equilibrium following the mortgage meltdown in August.  While the number of active listings has not fallen to the levels seen last year (5,682 vs. 4,903 active this time last year), the number of pending transactions is closing the gap at 696 vs. 763 this time last year.  As we've stated, the Saint Louis MO real estate market is extremely healthy when compared to the coastal markets and the FL markets all of which saw huge run ups in value and speculation only to see a huge correction on the way down.   

“Sellers should return to the market reality of St. Louis being a stable market as quickly as possible and price their property accordingly - or risk being 'OUT OF THE MARKET' despite having a sign in the yard that says 'for sale' and an agent marketing the property - no matter if its on the Internet, via open houses or in every print media available"

Listing Inventory – You are either priced correctly or not in Saint Louis

As we’ve discussed, despite the relative health of the Saint Louis MO real estate market, available inventory exceeds the levels seen this time last year.  Only 51% of available listings are selling in the Saint Louis MO real estate market. This is a source of consternation for Saint Louis MO home sellers.  Home sellers are either priced to sell or risk seeing little or no showing activity or being rejected by the market - having showings and NO offers while other competition sells.  Saint Louis MO's real estate market is one where you are truly in the market or are out of the market - in terms of pricing.  If you're out of the market, no amount of aggressive marketing or staging will help assist in obtaining an offer.  There simply is way too much inventory vs. the amount of buyers.  The glory days of 2004/2005 with multiple offers and homes selling for more than list price are a distant memory.  Seller's should return to the market reality as quickly as possible and price their property accordingly - or risk being 'out of the market' despite having a yard sign in the front of their home and an agent marketing their home.

“Typically as we enter the month of December, numerous sellers remove their homes from the market following the Thanksgiving holiday...2007 appears to be following this yearly seasonal pattern…”

Price Reductions falling below average for market

St. Louis saw a marked reduction in price reductions – down to 7.6%.   Home Sellers in Saint Louis MO continue to struggle with a market where there are more active listings available in many submarkets in St. Louis MO, than buyers who will purchase in a reasonable timeframe. Relative pending ratios for these submarkets are well below 10%. In these specific areas, even significant price reductions have been met with limited to no new showings. These areas are definitely targets for sellers to consider Lease/Purchases– something we’ve developed as a successful aggressive strategy to re-position a listing to compete with a large number of available properties. Seller’s in some Saint Louis MO areas may get one and only one shot at selling their house or condo. A seller of any property in St. Louis MO, whether its a condo in Clayton MO or a house in Webster Groves or Ballwin MO who receives an offer – however structured – should carefully weigh whether this is the only and best offer they will receive.

Readers of this weekly report will recall that for most price ranges, the months inventory showing in the Cottrell Report for most price ranges does not reconcile with the average days on market (close to 60 to 70 days on average). This is due to the fact that many homes on the market are overpriced and not ‘priced to sell.’ We are continuing to see many homes sell at or below the market averages for days on the market for more than 97.6% of list price. Homes that are not within a competitive price range typically experience low to no showing activity (as noted above - some sub-markets have experienced very limited buyer activity regardless of listing price).

Weighted Average Days on Market returns above 70! Days on Market remained above 70 for more than 35 weeks from late 2006 and most of 2007.

Weighted Average Days on Market returned to a level above 70 ending up this week at 71.3 its second increase in a row. We believe this is a significant sign that homes were selling quicker in the early part of the year; especially as sellers reduced prices and/or new homes are coming on the market much more competitively priced to sell.. Again, this measure which applies a weighting by relative activity per price range and is the aggregate measure of six whole months sales activity had been rising steadily since late fall.

We will continue to watch this measure carefully along with the overall list to sell ratio for pricing which has remained below 97% since mid-December 2006. It is important to note that the list to sales ratio is considerably lower than the 97.4% seen a year ago in St. Louis. Both indicators show activity as well as aggressive offers being accepted from the relatively smaller pool of buyers who are active in the marketplace.

Readers should note that both the List to Sale Ratio and the Weighted Average Days on Market are lagging indicators of market condition – they contain a rolling 6 months of data – and as such will not be the first indicator of market correction. The pending ratio (see above) is the leading indicator and as such will show the first and strongest sign of a shift in the market. Unfortunately, the local and national press focus on other indicators that are either plainly inaccurate or lag (imagine days on market declining for 30 weeks – when pending ratio reversed trend for more than 6 of those weeks) the market in terms of shifts.

Based on this fact, the press and most real estate agents and brokers normally watching the days on market would believe that the market is improving (days on market have been declining). However, the number of buyers under contract (pending ratio) has declined significantly (by over 24%) in the past month. We’ll be watching this carefully for any continued degradation in the pending ratio.

Note: Complete definitions of all terms for the Cottrell Report are found here.

Kevin Cottrell /Cottrell Realty Group @ Keller Williams Realty Southwest in Saint Louis MO

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Inventory Drops Dramatically

Cottrell Report – Total Market Overview for Week Ending 11/2/07

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Update & Overview
			Current WK	4 Weeks Prior	Trend
Active Listings			5,800	5,929	+
Pending Ratio			11.4%	11.6%	=
Price Reductions			11.5%	9.9%	-
Days on Market*			70.8	74.6	+
List/Selling Price(%)**			96.4%	96.5%	=
			Cottrell Index (08/07)	99	=
			Cottrell Index (07/07)	86	-
			Cottrell Index (06/07)	95	-
*Weighted Average Days on Market for Listings Sold
**Average List/Sell% for all listings sold in past 6 months
Source: MARIS Data Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed
Cottrell Index based on year over year analysis of ratio of new listings/listings sold
© Cottrell Realty Group/Keller Williams Realty 2006,2007 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Download TMO_10-31-07.pdf

“The Saint Louis MO real estate market showed the first significant sign of seasonal tightening of available listing inventory…”

Pending Ratio Nearing Single Digit Level - stable again week over week!

The pending ratio remained basically flat from last weeks 11.3 ending up this week at 11.4%. This ratio very close to the lowest level of 2007 and we expect the pending ratio to decline further based on seasonal reductions of buyers in the fall and winter in Saint Louis MO.

Listing Inventory – You are either priced correctly or not in Saint Louis

As we’ve discussed, over the past 30 to 60 days, available inventory has increased dramatically to a level of more than 8 months based on the six month rolling sales number. We’re continuing to see unseasonably slow showing activity – some listings whether new or just reduced in price (some by significant amounts) with very limited to zero showings. This is a source of consternation for Saint Louis MO home sellers.

We believe this is a continued sign of weakness from the fallout in the mortgage marketplace. Normally strong areas such as Webster Groves, Kirkwood MO, Clayton MO, Ladue and University City MO continue to be unseasonably low and off from where they were a few weeks ago.

“Typically as we enter the month of November, many seller's look to remove their homes from the market before the holidays...2007 appears to be following this yearly seasonal pattern…”

Price Reductions continue at record levels

St. Louis saw a renewed increase in price reductions – more than 1 in 10 in the past seven days. Home Sellers in Saint Louis MO are struggling with a market where there are more active listings available in many submarkets in St. Louis MO, than buyers who will purchase in a reasonable timeframe. Relative pending ratios for these submarkets are well below 10%. In these specific areas, even significant price reductions have been met with limited to no new showings. These areas are definitely targets for sellers to consider Lease/Purchases – something we’ve developed as a successful aggressive strategy to re-position a listing to compete with a large number of available properties. Seller’s in some Saint Louis MO areas may get one and only one shot at selling their house or condo. A seller of a condo in Clayton MO or a house in Fenton MO who receives an offer – however structured – should carefully weigh whether this is the only and best offer they will receive.

Significant Opportunity for Saint Louis MO for homebuyers!

The shift in the real estate market in Saint Louis MO real provides a significant opportunity for home buyers. Based on the trend we discussed two weeks ago towards reduced new listings entering the market, we would suggest that the current window of opportunity for home buyers based on a significant supply/demand imbalance could close between late fall/winter and spring. Great listings will still be available, however, seller’s may not be willing to discount as heavily as in the current market as the supply and demand come into balance.

As we discussed previously, as a home buyer looking in St. Louis MO, you need a market expert buyer agent who can assist with the selection of homes that represent the best value and when you find the best home in Saint Louis MO, provide the critical analysis for potential purchases (is the home priced in such a manner where it represents a significant value, has it had price a price reduction(s) – when, by how much? What do the comparable sales indicate? These are all key things that a professional buyer specialist can provide – Just make sure your agent is a market expert!

"Based on the trend we discussed two weeks ago the current window of opportunity for home buyers in Saint Louis MO…could close between late fall/winter and spring."

Readers of this weekly report will recall that for most price ranges, the months inventory showing in the Cottrell Report for most price ranges does not reconcile with the average days on market (close to 60 to 70 days on average). This is due to the fact that many homes on the market are overpriced and not ‘priced to sell.’ We are continuing to see many homes sell at or below the market averages for days on the market for more than 97.6% of list price. Homes that are not within a competitive price range typically experience low to no showing activity (as noted above - some sub-markets have experienced very limited buyer activity regardless of listing price).

FHA Loan is the Loan of Choice

As we discussed last week, the vast majority of buyers at or near the average price for homes sold in St. Louis are using FHA loan programs. We believe that many of the buyers who were knocked to the sidelines by the mortgage meltdown in August 2007 have now re-grouped, along with lenders rolling out new and improved FHA loan programs and are now confident enough to make offers. If you are looking to see if an FHA loan program will work for you, we strongly recommend that you consult with a market expert such as Jerry Vitale at Gorman & Gorman.

Weighted Average Days on Market returns above 70! Days on Market remained above 70 for more than 35 weeks.

Weighted Average Days on Market returned to a level above 70 ending up this week at 70.8 its second increase in a row. We believe this is a significant sign that homes were selling quicker in the early part of the year; especially as sellers reduced prices and/or new homes are coming on the market much more competitively priced to sell.. Again, this measure which applies a weighting by relative activity per price range and is the aggregate measure of six whole months sales activity had been rising steadily since late fall.

We will continue to watch this measure carefully along with the overall list to sell ratio for pricing which has remained below 97% since mid-December 2006. It is important to note that the list to sales ratio is considerably lower than the 97.4% seen a year ago in St. Louis. Both indicators show activity as well as aggressive offers being accepted from the relatively smaller pool of buyers who are active in the marketplace.

Readers should note that both the List to Sale Ratio and the Weighted Average Days on Market are lagging indicators of market condition – they contain a rolling 6 months of data – and as such will not be the first indicator of market correction. The pending ratio (see above) is the leading indicator and as such will show the first and strongest sign of a shift in the market. Unfortunately, the local and national press focus on other indicators that are either plainly inaccurate or lag (imagine days on market declining for 30 weeks – when pending ratio reversed trend for more than 6 of those weeks) the market in terms of shifts.

Based on this fact, the press and most real estate agents and brokers normally watching the days on market would believe that the market is improving (days on market have been declining). However, the number of buyers under contract (pending ratio) has declined significantly (by over 24%) in the past month. We’ll be watching this carefully for any continued degradation in the pending ratio.

Note: Complete definitions of all terms for the Cottrell Report are found here.

Kevin Cottrell /Cottrell Realty Group @ Keller Williams Realty Southwest in Saint Louis MO

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Remains Glutted with Over Priced Homes - Standoff between Overpriced Seller's and Buyer's looking for value!

Cottrell Report – Total Market Overview for Week Ending 10/12/07

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Update & Overview
			Current WK	4 Weeks Prior	Trend
Active Listings			6,039	5,978	-
Pending Ratio			11.5%	12.8%	+
Price Reductions			8.2%	9.8%	+
Days on Market*			69.5	72.0	+
List/Selling Price(%)**			96.5%	96.6%	=
			Cottrell Index (08/07)	99	=
			Cottrell Index (07/07)	86	-
			Cottrell Index (06/07)	95	-
*Weighted Average Days on Market for Listings Sold
**Average List/Sell% for all listings sold in past 6 months
Source: MARIS Data Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed
Cottrell Index based on year over year analysis of ratio of new listings/listings sold
© Cottrell Realty Group/Keller Williams Realty 2006,2007  ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Download TMO_10-10-07.pdf

“Many Saint Louis MO real estate home sellers are surprised that buyer’s and their agents are not making low ball offers!  It’s the Midwest and their concern is to not ‘offend’ anyone with an offer that is too far below the current list price…”

Pending Ratio Declines week over week – Continues Seasonal Decline!

The pending ratio declined slightly to 11.5% down sligthly from last weeks 11.6%.  This ratio is at the lowest level of 2007 and we expect the pending ratio to decline further based on seasonal reductions of buyers in the fall and winter in Saint Louis MO. .

Listing Inventory – You are either priced correctly or not in Saint Louis

Over the past 30 days, available inventory has increased dramatically to a level of 8.7 months based on the six month rolling sales number average.  Things have slowed down in Saint Louis MO’s real estate market, however, sales have definitely not stopped.  We’re continuing to see more and more aggressive offers – when a property is selected by a buyer and agent for possible acquisition – at initial offers that begin below list price.  This is a source of much consternation for Saint Louis MO home sellers as in some cases even the showing feedback does not reflect the reality of the market - agents respond that the listings are either 'priced right' or slightly overpriced yet their buyers move on to purchase a more reasonably priced listing. 

That  said, as we’ll note below, buyer’s and their agents are reluctant to ‘offend’ sellers whose listings are overpriced and thus typically do not make offers if the gap is too large between a ‘realistic price’ and the current listing price.  The one and only solution for a seller looking to sell is to lower the price of the home – in some cases significantly – to bring the list price down to where the market (read Buyers) will make an offer.

Showings on available listings continue to be well below average or not being shown at all – especially for listings with prices that are viewed as too far above the current market.  We believe this is a continued sign of weakness from the fallout in the mortgage marketplace. Normally strong areas such as Webster Groves,  Kirkwood MO, Clayton MO, Ladue and University City MO continue to be unseasonably low and off from where they were a few weeks ago. 

Price Reductions continue at record levels

More home sellers in St. Louis MO continue to aggressively lower their price (some have decided to make major adjustments) in order to have the best chance at a significantly smaller (when compared to just 12 months ago) pool of buyers.  This week, the % of St. Louis MO home sellers who have lowered the price on their listing is 8.2%.

There are more active listings available in many submarkets in St. Louis MO, than buyers who will purchase in a reasonable timeframe. Relative pending ratios for these submarkets are well below 10%.  In these specific areas, even significant price reductions have been met with limited to no new showings.  These areas are definitely targets for sellers to consider Lease/Purchases – something we’ve developed as a successful aggressive strategy to re-position a listing to compete with a large number of available properties.  Seller’s in some Saint Louis MO areas may get one and only one shot at selling their house or condo.  A seller of a condo in Clayton MO or a house in Fenton MO who receives an offer – however structured – should carefully weigh whether this is the only and best offer they will receive. 

Significant Opportunity for Saint Louis MO for homebuyers!

The shift in the real estate market in Saint Louis MO real provides a significant opportunity for home buyers.  Based on the trend we discussed last week towards reduced new listings entering the market, we would suggest that the current window of opportunity for home buyers based on a significant supply/demand imbalance could close between late fall and spring.  Great listings will still be available, however, seller’s may not be willing to discount as heavily as in the current market as the supply and demand come into balance. 

As we discussed previously, as a home buyer looking in St. Louis MO, you need a market expert buyer agent who can assist with the selection of homes that represent the best value and when you find the best home in Saint Louis MO, provide the critical analysis for potential purchases (is the home priced in such a manner where it represents a significant value, has it had price a price reduction(s) – when, by how much? What do the comparable sales indicate?  These are all key things that a professional buyer specialist can provide – Just make sure your agent is a market expert!

"Based on the trend we discussed last week the current window of opportunity for home buyers in Saint Louis MO…could close between late fall and spring."

Readers of this weekly report will recall that for most price ranges, the months inventory showing in the Cottrell Report for most price ranges does not reconcile with the average days on market (close to 60 to 70 days on average).  This is due to the fact that many homes on the market are overpriced and not ‘priced to sell.’  We are continuing to see many homes sell at or below the market averages for days on the market for more than 97.6% of list price.  Homes that are not within a competitive price range typically experience low to no showing activity (as noted above - some sub-markets have experienced very limited buyer activity regardless of listing price).

Weighted Average Days on Market finally breaks below 70!  Days on Market remained above 70 for 35 weeks.

Weighted Average Days on Market fell below 70 to 69.5 after remaining above 70 days for thirty-five consecutive weeks.  We believe this is a significant sign that homes were selling quicker in the early part of the year; especially as sellers reduced prices and/or new homes are coming on the market much more competitively priced to sell.. Again, this measure which applies a weighting by relative activity per price range and is the aggregate measure of six whole months sales activity had been rising steadily since late fall. 

We will continue to watch this measure carefully along with the overall list to sell ratio for pricing which has remained below 97% since mid-December 2006.  It is important to note that the list to sales ratio is considerably lower than the 97.4% seen a year ago in St. Louis.  Both indicators show activity as well as aggressive offers being accepted from the relatively smaller pool of buyers who are active in the marketplace.   

Readers should note that both the List to Sale Ratio and the Weighted Average Days on Market are lagging indicators of market condition – they contain a rolling 6 months of data – and as such will not be the first indicator of market correction.  The pending ratio (see above) is the leading indicator and as such will show the first and strongest sign of a shift in the market. Unfortunately, the local and national press focus on other indicators that are either plainly inaccurate or lag (imagine days on market declining for 30 weeks – when pending ratio reversed trend for more than 6 of those weeks) the market in terms of shifts.

Based on this fact, the press and most real estate agents and brokers normally watching the days on market would believe that the market is improving (days on market have been declining).  However, the number of buyers under contract (pending ratio) has declined significantly (by over 24%) in the past month.  We’ll be watching this carefully for any continued degradation in the pending ratio.

Note:  Complete definitions of all terms for the Cottrell Report are found here.

Kevin Cottrell /Cottrell Realty Group @ Keller Williams Realty Southwest in Saint Louis MO

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Showing Signs of Stabilization - Window of Opportunity May Close for Home Buyers!

Cottrell Report – Total Market Overview for Week Ending 10/5/07

Saint Louis MO Real Estate Market Update & Overview
			Current WK	4 Weeks Prior	Trend
Active Listings			5,929	5,983	=
Pending Ratio			11.6%	12.9%	-
Price Reductions			9.9%	7.6%	-
Days on Market*			74.6	70.7	-
List/Selling Price(%)**			97.0%	96.7%	+
			Cottrell Index (08/07)	99	=
			Cottrell Index (07/07)	86	-
			Cottrell Index (06/07)	95	-
*Weighted Average Days on Market for Listings Sold
**Average List/Sell% for all listings sold in past 6 months
Source: MARIS Data Deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed
Cottrell Index based on year over year analysis of ratio of new listings/listings sold
© Cottrell Realty Group/Keller Williams Realty 2006,2007  ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Download TMO_10-03-07.pdf 

“Saint Louis MO real estate market is starting to show signs of supply – demand stabilization for those who know what to look for!”

Pending Ratio Declines week over week – Begins Seasonal Decline for Fall into Winter!

The pending ratio declined slightly to 11.6% down from last weeks 12.8%.  This ratio is at the lowest level of 2007 and we expect the pending ratio to decline further based on seasonal reductions of buyers in the fall and winter in Saint Louis MO. A new trend, however is developing in listing inventory entering the market which we will discuss below.

Listing Inventory – What’s really going on behind the scenes in St. Louis MO!

Over the past 30 days, available inventory has increased dramatically to a level of 8.6 months based on the six month rolling sales number average.  Things have slowed down in Saint Louis MO’s real estate market, however, sales have definitely not stopped.  We’re continuing to see more and more aggressive offers – when a property is selected by a buyer and agent for possible acquisition – well below list price.  This is a source of much consternation for Saint Louis MO home sellers.

Showings on available listings continue to be well below average and ‘choppy’ with some listings in  areas that are slower than average seeing brisk activity while others in normally strong areas remain well below normal again this week.  We believe this is a continued sign of weakness from the fallout in the mortgage marketplace. Normally strong areas such as Webster Groves,  Kirkwood MO, Clayton MO, Ladue and University City MO continue to be unseasonably low and off from where they were a few weeks ago.  Some listings continue to have no showings at all.

There however, is a new trend developing behind the scenes over the past 90 days – this trend should provide a glimmer of positive news behind the scenes.  Based on the attached file (Download Saint_Louis_MO_List_Sell_Data_10_2007.pdf ), our analysis shows that when compared with 2006, 2007 new listings for the past two months are below the number for the same month last year (both August and September new listings for each month are off by more than 7% - showing that fewer listings are entering the market when compared to the same month in the previous year.  If this trend continues, the St. Louis Mo real estate market will correct itself as sellers with unrealistic pricing expectations will either leave the market (be withdrawn) or remain unsold (expire unsold) and fewer new listings enter.  The big hit to the buyer pool – those that can no longer purchase post-mortgage meltdown, already occurred.  What remains now is to see if this trend continues and possibly accelerates over the next few months.  Readers should note that seasonally, the number of new listings entering the market drops between October 1 and December each year (generally off by up to 40%).  This is not the trend we are watching, what we are comparing is October of 2006 to October of 2007 and each successive month year over year.

Price Reductions continue at record levels

More home sellers in St. Louis MO continue to aggressively lower their price (some have decided to make major adjustments) in order to have the best chance at a significantly smaller (when compared to just 12 months ago) pool of buyers.  This week, the % of St. Louis MO home sellers who have lowered the price on their listing is 9.9%.

There are more active listings available in many submarkets in St. Louis MO, than buyers who will purchase in a reasonable timeframe. Relative pending ratios for these submarkets are well below 10%.  In these specific areas, even significant price reductions have been met with limited to no new showings.  These areas are definitely targets for sellers to consider Lease/Purchases – something we’ve developed as a successful aggressive strategy to re-position a listing to compete with a large number of available properties. Seller’s in some Saint Louis MO areas may get one and only one shot at selling their house or condo.  A seller of a condo in Clayton MO or a house in Fenton MO who receives an offer – however structured – should carefully weigh whether this is the only and best offer they will receive.  Smart sellers in Saint Louis MO are seeking the experienced counsel of a professional listing agent to market, generate and assist with the evaluation of offers.

Significant Opportunity for Saint Louis MO for homebuyers!

The shift in the real estate market in Saint Louis MO real provides a significant opportunity for home buyers.  Based on the trend towards reduced new listings entering the market, we would suggest that the current window of opportunity for home buyers based on a significant supply/demand imbalance could close between late fall and spring.  Great listings will still be available, however, seller’s may not be willing to discount as heavily as in the current market as the supply and demand come into balance. 

As we discussed previously, as a home buyer looking in St. Louis MO, you need a market expert buyer agent who can assist with the selection of homes that represent the best value and when you find the best home in Saint Louis MO, provide the critical analysis for potential purchases (is the home priced in such a manner where it represents a significant value, has it had price a price reduction(s) – when, by how much? What do the comparable sales indicate?  These are all key things that a professional buyer specialist can provide – Just make sure your agent is a market expert!

"Based on the trend towards a reduced number of new listings entering the market, we would suggest that the current window of opportunity for home buyers in Saint Louis MO…could close between late fall and spring."

Readers of this weekly report will recall that for most price ranges, the months inventory showing in the Cottrell Report for most price ranges does not reconcile with the average days on market (close to 60 to 70 days on average).  This is due to the fact that many homes on the market are overpriced and not ‘priced to sell.’  We are continuing to see many homes sell at or below the market averages for days on the market for more than 97.6% of list price.  Homes that are not within a competitive price range typically experience low to no showing activity (as noted above - some sub-markets have experienced very limited buyer activity regardless of listing price).

Weighted Average Days on Market moved dramatically upward!  Days on Market remains above 70 for 35^th week.

Weighted Average Days on Market rebounded upward to 74.6, above 70 days for the thirty-fifth consecutive week.  We believe this is a significant sign that homes were selling quicker in the early part of the year; especially as sellers reduced prices and/or new homes are coming on the market much more competitively priced to sell.. Again, this measure which applies a weighting by relative activity per price range and is the aggregate measure of six whole months sales activity had been rising steadily since late fall. 

We will continue to watch this measure carefully along with the overall list to sell ratio for pricing which has remained below 97% since mid-December 2006.  It is important to note that the list to sales ratio is considerably lower than the 97.4% seen a year ago in St. Louis.  Both indicators show activity as well as aggressive offers being accepted from the relatively smaller pool of buyers who are active in the marketplace.   

Readers should note that both the List to Sale Ratio and the Weighted Average Days on Market are lagging indicators of market condition – they contain a rolling 6 months of data – and as such will not be the first indicator of market correction.  The pending ratio (see above) is the leading indicator and as such will show the first and strongest sign of a shift in the market. Unfortunately, the local and national press focus on other indicators that are either plainly inaccurate or lag (imagine days on market declining for 30 weeks – when pending ratio reversed trend for more than 6 of those weeks) the market in terms of shifts.

Based on this fact, the press and most real estate agents and brokers normally watching the days on market would believe that the market is improving (days on market have been declining).  However, the number of buyers under contract (pending ratio) has declined significantly (by over 24%) in the past month.  We’ll be watching this carefully for any continued degradation in the pending ratio.

Note:  Complete definitions of all terms for the Cottrell Report are found here.

Kevin Cottrell /Cottrell Realty Group @ Keller Williams Realty Southwest in Saint Louis MO